What actually drives your Claude bill: cache misses, quadratic context, and prepaid retries
The per-token rate on Anthropic’s pricing page is real, but it’s the least useful number for predicting your actual invoice. Three multipliers move the bill far more than model choice does — a cache that silently misses, a transcript that grows quadratically with run length, and a best-of-N pattern that prepays for latency you may not need. Here’s the arithmetic on all three, combined, with real numbers.